stephenkirsh
02-20-2015, 08:12 PM
Intro:
So I'm one of those people that always focuses on the future. After having my ZHP for about 3 months I was already thinking, "what will be my next car?" even though I planned to keep the car for 10 years, and still do. For a while now there have been a decent number of cars based on performance, cost and the availability of 4 doors (they're more functional, and look better!) that have peaked my interest. But there's always something nagging at the back of my mind with any car that's newer than ~2006 will be a maintenance disaster.
TLDR:
I have a theory; is it crazy?
Backstory:
- In 2007 President Bush passed laws that any car manufacturer selling cars in the US had to reach a fleet average of 35mpg by 2020.
- In 2011 President Obama passed laws that any car manufacturer selling cars in the US had to reach a fleet average of 54.5mpg by 2025.
- In 2014 the fleet average was 25.4mpg.
- We're short by 30mpg with only 10 years to go.
So here are my thoughts. In the 1990s and 2000s, cars started to enter into a period of supreme reliability. The core components such as drivelines, main engine components, chassis, and other solid metal pieces actually lasted a long time. Starting in the early 2010s, things have started to change. Manufacturers have to suddenly increase their MPG by an INSANE amount. In 2014 we had the highest average fleet MPG of all time, but we’re not even halfway to 2025 CAFE regulations with only 10 years to go. How do manufacturers accomplish this? They have to severely push the limits of technology.
To me, this seems like a recipe for disaster for car reliability. Their goal is no longer to make cars that last 300,000 miles but to meet 55mpg. They’re a business; their goal is to sell a car with 0 miles, not a used one with 100,000 miles on. Reliability after that 4 year/50k warranty doesn’t matter. They have 10 years to meet those fuel regulations.
One method that is new, and I think will be ubiquitous by 2020, is plugin hybrids. I think the next M3 will be based on what the current i8 is and the next i8 will be fully electric or hydrogen. That’s awesome for fun/mpg/performance, but what about reliability?
I’m going to use the 3 series as an example, because it’s the car I know the most about. The E46 was probably one of the most reliable cars BMW made (in addition to E36/E39). It was relatively simple, it’s engine’s base had been around since the early 1990s (as the M50), but what came next? Suddenly we have an N52 with a $450 water pump and N54 with massive carbon build up problems and failing turbos. The N55 is still in use today, and while the turbos and carbon issues are a bit better, I really don’t trust them to be easy to maintain over a 300,000 mile life period. Non-major engine components suddenly became very technical, and very expensive to replace.
I know there’s a few members on here with reliable E9Xs, but I’ve heard so many horror stories with these cars from “normal” people. The worst is probably from my dad, who has a coworker with an E90 335 (not sure if N54 or N55) and has had $14,000 worth of work done to it in ~3 years. That’s at the inflated stealership price, but things he’s had done are full replacement of turbo(s), fuel injectors and other major components I’ve forgotten. My dad has an E46 ZSP. When he talks about this guy with the 335, he’s always like “I feel really bad for him.” Again, this is just the worst example, but I’ve never really heard of somebody with an E46 with only ~75,000 miles having to basically rebuild the entire engine outside of just the cooling system. This 335 owner hasn’t even done suspension or cooling system yet. My dad has sent me pictures of this guy’s receipts before; they’re for major engine components. Please keep in mind that people like us on this forum are probably 1% of the population.
Then there’s my coworker who has a 2012 F30 328. He’s had his fuel injectors replaced THREE TIMES in under 60,000 miles. That just seems NUTS to me. I ran into him at the stealership when I was getting my airbag replaced and he said “this lease has another year on it and then I’m out. I’ve had this car at the dealership for a total of 4 weeks in 3 years of ownership.” Seriously!?
There are a lot of other stories I’ve heard. I don’t want to pick on the BMW 3 series, but is this big list of problems because all 3 series after the E46 are crap, or is it because I only pay attention to BMWs? I’m thinking it’s the later. My theory is that new cars are being pushed to the absolute limits and they’re not functioning well because of that.
I’ve been mulling this theory around for a bit and wanted to post it here to see what you guys think. I’ve been lazy, but then I saw this story that backed up my thoughts that it’s not just BMW; it’s everybody. All manufacturers are trying to meet those CAFE regulations, and quickly.
“Direct-injection engines improve performance and save fuel, but at a price”
https://autos.yahoo.com/news/direct-injection-engines-improve-performance-save-fuel-price-193000698.html
If you don’t want to read the article, it’s basically “DI engines improve fuel mileage, but cause problems that manufactures know about and won’t help you with.”
Direct Injection engines have been out for.. 10 years now, right? So it's taken 10 years for this article to come out. What technology are manufacturers using today to increase MPG that we will find out greatly increases the cost of reliability in the future?
OVERALL TLDR:
CAFE regulations requiring 54.5mpg for fleet average by 2025 is pushing car manufacturers to make unreliable cars simply to meet government regulations. Used cars will become stupidly expensive to maintain as the technology is not fully developed.
2007 regulations:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corporate_Average_Fuel_Economy#2006_reform_attempt _and_lawsuit
2011 regulations:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corporate_Average_Fuel_Economy#Agreed_standards_by _model_year.2C_2011-2025
2014 US fleet average:
http://knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/article/unintended-consequences-ambitious-fuel-economy-standards/
What do you guys think?
So I'm one of those people that always focuses on the future. After having my ZHP for about 3 months I was already thinking, "what will be my next car?" even though I planned to keep the car for 10 years, and still do. For a while now there have been a decent number of cars based on performance, cost and the availability of 4 doors (they're more functional, and look better!) that have peaked my interest. But there's always something nagging at the back of my mind with any car that's newer than ~2006 will be a maintenance disaster.
TLDR:
I have a theory; is it crazy?
Backstory:
- In 2007 President Bush passed laws that any car manufacturer selling cars in the US had to reach a fleet average of 35mpg by 2020.
- In 2011 President Obama passed laws that any car manufacturer selling cars in the US had to reach a fleet average of 54.5mpg by 2025.
- In 2014 the fleet average was 25.4mpg.
- We're short by 30mpg with only 10 years to go.
So here are my thoughts. In the 1990s and 2000s, cars started to enter into a period of supreme reliability. The core components such as drivelines, main engine components, chassis, and other solid metal pieces actually lasted a long time. Starting in the early 2010s, things have started to change. Manufacturers have to suddenly increase their MPG by an INSANE amount. In 2014 we had the highest average fleet MPG of all time, but we’re not even halfway to 2025 CAFE regulations with only 10 years to go. How do manufacturers accomplish this? They have to severely push the limits of technology.
To me, this seems like a recipe for disaster for car reliability. Their goal is no longer to make cars that last 300,000 miles but to meet 55mpg. They’re a business; their goal is to sell a car with 0 miles, not a used one with 100,000 miles on. Reliability after that 4 year/50k warranty doesn’t matter. They have 10 years to meet those fuel regulations.
One method that is new, and I think will be ubiquitous by 2020, is plugin hybrids. I think the next M3 will be based on what the current i8 is and the next i8 will be fully electric or hydrogen. That’s awesome for fun/mpg/performance, but what about reliability?
I’m going to use the 3 series as an example, because it’s the car I know the most about. The E46 was probably one of the most reliable cars BMW made (in addition to E36/E39). It was relatively simple, it’s engine’s base had been around since the early 1990s (as the M50), but what came next? Suddenly we have an N52 with a $450 water pump and N54 with massive carbon build up problems and failing turbos. The N55 is still in use today, and while the turbos and carbon issues are a bit better, I really don’t trust them to be easy to maintain over a 300,000 mile life period. Non-major engine components suddenly became very technical, and very expensive to replace.
I know there’s a few members on here with reliable E9Xs, but I’ve heard so many horror stories with these cars from “normal” people. The worst is probably from my dad, who has a coworker with an E90 335 (not sure if N54 or N55) and has had $14,000 worth of work done to it in ~3 years. That’s at the inflated stealership price, but things he’s had done are full replacement of turbo(s), fuel injectors and other major components I’ve forgotten. My dad has an E46 ZSP. When he talks about this guy with the 335, he’s always like “I feel really bad for him.” Again, this is just the worst example, but I’ve never really heard of somebody with an E46 with only ~75,000 miles having to basically rebuild the entire engine outside of just the cooling system. This 335 owner hasn’t even done suspension or cooling system yet. My dad has sent me pictures of this guy’s receipts before; they’re for major engine components. Please keep in mind that people like us on this forum are probably 1% of the population.
Then there’s my coworker who has a 2012 F30 328. He’s had his fuel injectors replaced THREE TIMES in under 60,000 miles. That just seems NUTS to me. I ran into him at the stealership when I was getting my airbag replaced and he said “this lease has another year on it and then I’m out. I’ve had this car at the dealership for a total of 4 weeks in 3 years of ownership.” Seriously!?
There are a lot of other stories I’ve heard. I don’t want to pick on the BMW 3 series, but is this big list of problems because all 3 series after the E46 are crap, or is it because I only pay attention to BMWs? I’m thinking it’s the later. My theory is that new cars are being pushed to the absolute limits and they’re not functioning well because of that.
I’ve been mulling this theory around for a bit and wanted to post it here to see what you guys think. I’ve been lazy, but then I saw this story that backed up my thoughts that it’s not just BMW; it’s everybody. All manufacturers are trying to meet those CAFE regulations, and quickly.
“Direct-injection engines improve performance and save fuel, but at a price”
https://autos.yahoo.com/news/direct-injection-engines-improve-performance-save-fuel-price-193000698.html
If you don’t want to read the article, it’s basically “DI engines improve fuel mileage, but cause problems that manufactures know about and won’t help you with.”
Direct Injection engines have been out for.. 10 years now, right? So it's taken 10 years for this article to come out. What technology are manufacturers using today to increase MPG that we will find out greatly increases the cost of reliability in the future?
OVERALL TLDR:
CAFE regulations requiring 54.5mpg for fleet average by 2025 is pushing car manufacturers to make unreliable cars simply to meet government regulations. Used cars will become stupidly expensive to maintain as the technology is not fully developed.
2007 regulations:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corporate_Average_Fuel_Economy#2006_reform_attempt _and_lawsuit
2011 regulations:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corporate_Average_Fuel_Economy#Agreed_standards_by _model_year.2C_2011-2025
2014 US fleet average:
http://knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/article/unintended-consequences-ambitious-fuel-economy-standards/
What do you guys think?